An interesting fight is fixed for UFC On ABC is Petr Yan vs Marcus McGhee. UFC on ABC prediction for this fight is Petr Yan, and there is a simple reason for that is Petr Yan is no. 3 ranking fighter, and Marcus McGhee is no. 13 in the bantamweight division.
Petr Yan deserves a title shot against the current bantamweight champion, Merab Dvalishvili, but instead of giving title shot, UFC gave him the fight against the no. 13-ranked fighter.
UFC is facing criticism with this decision, but UFC said that Marcus McGhee is a very good talent and he deserves this fight.
This fight is an opportunity for both fighters to prove that they deserve better, and Marcus McGhee is surprisingly in the title race if he beats Petr Yan in this fight. If Petr Yan beats Marcus McGhee, he will get the title shot.
UFC On ABC Prediction: Petr Yan vs Marcus McGhee
| Attribute | Petr Yan | Marcus McGhee | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Striking | ★★★★★ | ★★★★☆ | Yan’s elite boxing and pressure (5.92 significant strikes/min) outshine McGhee’s high-volume striking (6.06/min). Yan’s masterclass vs. Figueiredo showed precision; McGhee’s KO power (3 UFC finishes) is dangerous but less technical. |
| Grappling | ★★★★☆ | ★★★☆☆ | Yan’s wrestling (2.06 takedowns/15 min) and 70% takedown defense give him an edge. McGhee’s 100% takedown defense is untested against elite wrestlers like Yan, limiting his grappling offense. |
| Cardio | ★★★★☆ | ★★★☆☆ | Yan’s five-round experience (e.g., vs. Sandhagen) shows strong endurance. McGhee’s only decision win (vs. Martinez) suggests solid but unproven cardio against top-tier pace. |
| Chin/Durability | ★★★★☆ | ★★★☆☆ | Yan’s granite chin absorbed punishment from O’Malley and Dvalishvili with no KO losses. McGhee, never finished, was rocked by Martinez’s leg kicks, showing vulnerability. |
| Fight IQ | ★★★★★ | ★★★☆☆ | Yan’s tactical adjustments (e.g., vs. Yadong) reflect elite fight IQ. McGhee’s patience vs. Martinez shows growth, but Yan’s experience against top foes gives him the edge. |
| Experience | ★★★★★ | ★★★☆☆ | Yan’s 14 UFC fights, including title wins over Aldo and Sandhagen, dwarf McGhee’s 4-0 UFC run. McGhee’s faced less elite competition (Martinez his biggest test). |
| Momentum | ★★★★☆ | ★★★★★ | McGhee’s 6-fight win streak, including 4-0 in UFC, edges out Yan’s 2-fight streak (Yadong, Figueiredo). McGhee’s recent activity gives him a slight momentum advantage. |
| Home Advantage | ★★★☆☆ | ★★☆☆☆ | Neither has a true home advantage in Abu Dhabi. Yan’s prior UFC fights there (e.g., vs. O’Malley) give him slight familiarity over McGhee, who’s newer to the venue. |
| Overall Prediction | 70% | 30% | Yan’s superior striking, wrestling, and experience likely lead to a decision win or late TKO. McGhee’s KO power offers upset potential if he catches Yan early. |
Conclusion
- Yan’s Path to Victory: Use precise striking and takedowns to control the fight, leveraging experience to outpoint or finish late.
- McGhee’s Path to Victory: Land early power shots for a KO, relying on speed and takedown defense to keep it standing.
- X-Factor: Yan’s ability to handle McGhee’s early aggression vs. McGhee’s untested grappling against elite competition.
- Upset Potential: McGhee’s knockout power (80% finish rate) makes him a live underdog if he connects early.
- Stakes: A Yan win solidifies his title shot claim; a McGhee upset catapults him into the top 5.
- Winner: Petr Yan’s chance is 70% and Marcus McGhee’s chance is 30% in this fight to get victorious.