The co-main event at UFC On ABC is fixed for Movsar Evloev vs Aaron Pico. The UFC on ABC prediction for this fight is Movsar Exloev, but it is possible that Aaron Pico can pull off an upset here.
Movsar Evloev is always in the debate that why UFC is not giving him a title shot in the featherweight division. At this time current champion, Alexander Volkanovski, said that he wants to defend the title against Movsa.
But UFC didn’t give him a title shot, and given the excuse that Movsar Evloev won all his fights by decision, he didn’t finish any of his fights. If Movsar Evloev wins this fight by finish, Aaron Pico, he will secure his title shot.
On the other hand, Aaron Pico is well well-trained fighter; he spent 8 to 10 years in Dagestani MMA coaching. Everyone knows that many successful and dominant fighters come from there, like Khabib and Islam.
UFC On ABC Prediction: Movsar Evloev vs Aaron Pico
| Attribute | Movsar Evloev | Aaron Pico | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Striking | ★★★☆☆ | ★★★★☆ | Pico’s Golden Gloves boxing background and seven first-round KOs give him a striking edge. Evloev’s precise but less powerful striking relies on volume, as seen in his decision win over Sterling. |
| Grappling | ★★★★★ | ★★★★☆ | Evloev’s Greco-Roman wrestling and 40 UFC takedowns (third-most in featherweight history) make him elite. Pico’s Olympic-level wrestling is strong, but Evloev’s control and submission threat give him the advantage. |
| Cardio | ★★★★☆ | ★★★☆☆ | Evloev’s ability to maintain pressure over five rounds (e.g., vs. Lopes, Allen) suggests superior cardio. Pico’s fast finishes limit cardio evidence, but his wrestling base implies solid endurance. |
| Chin/Durability | ★★★★☆ | ★★★☆☆ | Evloev’s never been finished in 19 fights, showing strong durability. Pico’s two KO losses in Bellator (2019) indicate vulnerability, though he’s been more resilient recently. |
| Fight IQ | ★★★★☆ | ★★★☆☆ | Evloev’s tactical decision wins over top foes like Sterling and Lopes, reflecting high fight IQ. Pico’s growth since early career setbacks shows improvement, but his aggression can be reckless. |
| Experience | ★★★★★ | ★★★☆☆ | Evloev’s 9-0 UFC record against top-10 opponents (Sterling, Lopes, Allen) outweighs Pico’s 13-4 Bellator/PFL run, where he faced less elite competition. |
| Momentum | ★★★★☆ | ★★★★★ | Pico’s three straight wins, including back-to-back first-round KOs, give him a slight edge. Evloev’s 19-0 streak and win over Sterling at UFC 310 keep him close. |
| Home Advantage | ★★★☆☆ | ★★☆☆☆ | Neither has a true home advantage in Abu Dhabi. Evloev’s prior UFC fights in the UAE (e.g., vs. Till) give him slight familiarity over Pico, who’s fighting abroad for the third straight time. |
| Overall Prediction | 65% | 35% | Evloev’s grappling dominance and UFC experience likely lead to a decision win by controlling Pico on the ground. Pico’s striking power offers upset potential if he keeps it standing. |
Conclusion
- Evloev’s Path to Victory: Use wrestling to ground Pico, control position, and avoid striking exchanges where Pico excels.
- Pico’s Path to Victory: Leverage striking power with uppercuts and hooks to deter takedowns and aim for a knockout.
- X-Factor: Evloev’s health status after his reported withdrawal could impact performance. Pico’s untested UFC-level grappling is a question mark.
- Upset Potential: Pico’s heavy hands and wrestling could shock Evloev if he lands early or stuffs takedowns.
- Stakes: A win for Evloev likely secures a title shot against Volkanovski or Lopes. A Pico victory catapults him into the featherweight elite.
- Winner: Movsar Evloev’s chance is 65% and Aaron Pico’s chance is 35%.