The co-main event for UFC 318 is going to happen between Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov. It is an important fight for Paulo Costa as he is losing his stardom in the UFC with back-to-back losses. UFC 318 prediction for this fight is Roman Kopylov because of some interesting facts.
Roman Kopylov is a TKO artist, as 12 out of his 14 wins come from the knock-out. Paulo Costa, on the other hand, has lost some important fights in the past, which is going to disturb his confidence a little bit.
In a recent press conference, Paulo Costa said that if god gifted him this win in UFC 318, he will call out Khamzat Chimaev for his next fight. So if Paulo won the fight, something big is waiting for Paulo Costa and Khamzat Chimaev fans.
UFC 318 Predictions: Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov
Below is a detailed comparison of Paulo Costa and Roman Kopylov based on key fighting attributes for their UFC 318 co-main event middleweight bout on July 19, 2025, at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana.
| Attribute | Paulo Costa | Roman Kopylov | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Striking | Aggressive, power-heavy hooks and body attacks; lands 6.22 significant strikes per minute with 58% accuracy. Relies on one-punch knockouts but leaves openings for counters. | Technical southpaw kickboxer with crisp combinations and high-percentage shots. Excels at range with jabs and sneaky high kicks; 12 of 14 wins by KO/TKO. | Kopylov |
| Grappling | Patient and composed, with excellent timing and counter-striking. Tactical improvements are evident in recent fights. | Black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu; has one submission win in his career. Rarely uses takedowns (last one in 2019 vs. Romero) but has a 75% takedown success rate. | Costa |
| Cardio | Historically struggles with cardio in later rounds, especially in recent fights. Recent tactical adjustments aim to manage energy better. | Strong gas tank, fights annually, and maintains output in three-round bouts. Can fatigue if pressured relentlessly. | Kopylov |
| Chin/Durability | Resilient; only knocked out once (by Adesanya in 2020). Absorbs 6.56 strikes per minute, a weakness against precise strikers. | Rarely tested but showed durability in recent wins. Avoids heavy damage with footwork and defensive awareness. | Costa |
| Fight IQ | Historically reckless, chasing knockouts, but recent losses suggest a shift to a more strategic approach. Still inconsistent in execution. | 17 pro fights, 9 UFC bouts since 2019. Faced less high-profile opponents, but former Fight Night Global champion. | Kopylov |
| Experience | Faced elite competition (Adesanya, Whittaker, Strickland); 18 pro fights, 10 UFC bouts since 2017. Former Jungle Fight champion. | 17 pro fights, 9 UFC bouts since 2019. Faced less high-profile opponents but former Fight Night Global champion. | Costa |
| Momentum | On a two-fight losing streak (1-4 in last five); last win in 2022 vs. Rockhold. Recent performances lack consistency. | Two-fight win streak with 6-1 record in last seven, including a highlight-reel KO over Curtis in January 2025. | Kopylov |
| Home Advantage | No significant advantage; fighting in New Orleans, neutral ground for both. | No significant advantage; neutral ground. | None |
| Overall Prediction | Costa’s power and grappling could pose problems if he returns to his aggressive, pressure-heavy style. However, recent inactivity and defensive lapses make him vulnerable. | Kopylov’s technical striking, speed, and momentum give him the edge. Likely to outpoint or finish Costa via TKO with precise combinations. | Kopylov via Decision or TKO |
Conclusion
- Costa’s Crossroads: Paulo Costa is at a critical juncture, with a 1-4 record in his last five fights. A loss here could jeopardize his UFC future, especially against a lower-ranked opponent like Kopylov. His promise to return to his aggressive “Borrachinha” style is promising but unproven in recent outings.
- Kopylov’s Opportunity: Roman Kopylov has a chance to secure the biggest win of his career. Beating a name like Costa could propel him into the middleweight top 10, capitalizing on his recent momentum and technical striking prowess.
- Stylistic Clash: This fight pits Costa’s raw power and aggression against Kopylov’s precision and patience. If Costa can close the distance and pressure early, he might disrupt Kopylov’s rhythm. However, Kopylov’s footwork and counter-striking could exploit Costa’s tendency to absorb strikes.
- Betting Odds: Kopylov is the betting favorite at -230 to -250, reflecting his momentum and activity, while Costa is the underdog at +190 to +210. The odds suggest a likely decision or TKO for Kopylov, with the fight going the distance at -185.
- Fans’ Sentiment: Some favor Kopylov’s technical striking and momentum, while others believe Costa could upset if he rediscovers his old form. The consensus leans slightly toward Kopylov due to Costa’s recent struggles.