Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez is one of the hyped fights in UFC 318. The reason is Kevin Holland because of his famous personality. The UFC 318 prediction for this fight is Kevin Holland due to his fighting skills.
Kevin Holland is famous for his dramatic nature and early returns to the octagon, as he loves to fight again and again.
In this article, we will break down the Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez fight by comparing their fighting skills and also predict the possible winner.
UFC 318 Prediction: Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez
Below is a detailed comparison of Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez based on key fighting attributes for their welterweight clash at UFC 318 on July 19, 2025, at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana.
| Attribute | Kevin Holland | Daniel Rodriguez | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Striking | Unorthodox style with a 4.24 significant strikes per minute, 50% accuracy. Excels with long-range jabs, front kicks, and creative combinations. His 81-inch reach allows him to control distance effectively. | High-volume striker landing 7.39 significant strikes per minute with 48% accuracy. Relies on crisp boxing, effective counters, and body shots from a southpaw stance. | Holland (reach and versatility) |
| Grappling | Black belt in BJJ with 9 submission wins. Dangerous in scrambles, capable of snatching submissions like the anaconda choke used against Vicente Luque. | Functional grappling with a 55% takedown success rate and 63% takedown defense. Rarely submits opponents (0.1 attempts per 15 min). | Holland (submission threat) |
| Cardio | Proven endurance, having fought 3 times in 2025 already. Maintains pace in high-output fights, especially at welterweight. | Strong cardio, known for sustaining high striking volume late into fights. Durable in prolonged exchanges. | Even (both reliable) |
| Chin/Durability | Absorbs 3.11 significant strikes per minute with 50% striking defense. Has never been knocked out at welterweight. | Absorbs 5.39 significant strikes per minute with 58% defense. Only one career KO loss, showing resilience. | Holland (better defense) |
| Fight IQ | High fight IQ, adapts well with unorthodox attacks and transitions. Recent performances show improved focus at 170 lbs. | Smart striker who adjusts to opponents’ aggression but can struggle against rangy fighters due to defensive lapses. | Holland (adaptability) |
| Experience | 28-13-1 record, 15-10 in UFC. Extremely active, with 4th fight in 2025. Faced top-tier competition across weight classes. | 19-5 record, 9-4 in UFC. Strong start (8-1 in first 9 UFC fights) but less frequent fights recently. | Holland (activity and depth) |
| Momentum | Two-fight win streak with a submission over Vicente Luque and a decision over Gunnar Nelson. Thriving at welterweight. | Two-fight win streak with a TKO over Santiago Ponzinibbio and a decision over Alex Morono. Rebounding from a three-fight skid. | Holland (higher-quality wins) |
| Home Advantage | No significant advantage; from California, fighting in Louisiana. | No significant advantage; from California, fighting in Louisiana. | Even (neutral venue) |
| Overall Prediction | Holland’s reach, speed, and grappling versatility give him the edge. Likely to control range with strikes and capitalize on scrambles for a finish or dominant decision. | Rodriguez’s volume and durability keep him competitive, but he’ll struggle to close distance consistently. Needs to force a brawl to have a chance at an upset. | Holland (75-77% win probability) |
Conclusion
- Holland’s Activity: Holland is fighting his fourth bout of 2025, aiming to break his own UFC record for most fights in a year.
- Rodriguez’s Upset Potential: At 38, Rodriguez’s experience and durability make him a live underdog (+340 odds). But his high-volume striking ability could test Holland if he closes the distance.
- Stylistic Clash: Holland’s rangy, unorthodox style versus Rodriguez’s pressure-heavy boxing creates a classic striker’s duel.
- Previous Booking: This fight was originally scheduled for UFC 279 but was disrupted by a card reshuffle. Both fighters are motivated to settle this long-awaited matchup.
- Betting Value: Holland is a heavy favorite (-455), but the fight going the distance (+250) could offer value given Rodriguez’s durability and Holland’s decision wins.